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二手车新江湖:瓜子百亿融资背后,市场依然在挣扎

没有人知道这条赛道的终点通向何方,金融会成为二手车电商平台的终极答案吗?

作者:孙宏超  编辑:康晓

来源:经授权转载自腾讯深网(ID:qqshenwang)


当杨浩涌决定离开合58赶集另立山头时,原本如一潭死水的二手车电商行业,迅速被裹挟着成为中国互联网领域近年来竞争最激烈的赛道之一。

 

最新的消息是,瓜子二手车、毛豆新车网母公司车好多集团宣布已完成15亿美元新一轮融资,投资方是孙正义的软银愿景基金。相关数据显示,新一轮融资后,车好多集团估值将超过90亿美元。

 

油门再次被狠狠踩下,伴随着机器的轰鸣声,每个车手都在揣测对手的油箱里是否还能榨出最后一丝余力。在此前,已有人摔得粉身碎骨,也有人仍在咬牙紧跟。

 

没有人知道这条赛道的终点通向何方,金融会成为二手车电商平台的终极答案吗?


始于营销乱战

 

2015年年底,瓜子二手车宣布从58赶集分拆独立,深谙烧钱战术的杨浩涌迅速带领团队改变了这个行业。

 

在此前,并非没有二手车或者新车电商存在。但绝大数电商平台主要模式为2B,为线下4S店或传统车商导流,在广告营销方面投入不多。刚刚加入战团的杨浩涌宣布瓜子在广告营销上投入超过10亿,仅仅一年,其员工人数就从1000人扩张到2000人。

 

这让业内同行不得不紧紧跟随,优信二手车创始人戴琨曾在接受采访时表示,“如果没有瓜子二手车这样一个对手,优信的广告费用可能会少投一半。”

 


此前戴琨并未想过自己要面临这样残酷竞争的市场,“我在英国读书的时候,特别希望有自己的二手车。而在中国,当时汽车基本上还属于遥不可及的梦想。那个时候我开始了解这个行业,并告诉自己是一个巨大的市场。2005年我在深圳创立第一家二手车互联网平台,叫汽车简历。”

 

表面平静的油锅被水滴打破,除了优信、瓜子、人人车等传统好手外,以大搜车为代表的一批二手车电商平台也试图在这个领域掘金,主要竞争手段依然是大量的营销支出。

 

资料显示,2017年,单是22.03亿元的销售和营销费用,就已经高于优信19亿全年总营收。而在争夺用户最激烈的2015年,优信豪掷1.8亿元独家冠名《奔跑吧兄弟3》,创下互联网赞助记录;3000万元广告费拍下《中国好声音》的“冠军之夜”黄金60秒广告位,也刷新了中国电视单条广告价格纪录。

 

杨浩涌口中的“风口”,核心内容也是市场营销费用的急剧增加,其对《深网》表示:“巨额资本正在向二手车领域涌入,2015年这个行业的市场推广费用可能超过10亿,这是过去10年行业的总和,而2016年可能瓜子二手车一家就会投入10亿市场推广费,这说明拐点已经到来了,行业发展的会更加迅速。”

 

孙红雷、王宝强、黄渤分别作为瓜子、优信和人人车的代言人,广告开始在电视台等媒体轮番轰炸。


 

艾瑞咨询的研究数据显示,2015年二手车电商的广告投放总额超过8亿元,2016年广告营销相关支出达到12亿元,2017年几大二手车电商平台广告费用突破了50亿元。

 

戴琨曾表示,在2018年投入13亿元进行市场营销。优信二手车CMO王鑫也公开表示,“(广告)效果必须是一鸣惊人的,如果只是小打小闹,我们就不做了。”

 

但这个没有老师傅的行业很难因为一通乱拳就被迫改变,和其他互联网公司营销-流量-销量的三部曲不同,根据金融信息服务商鲸准数据的报告显示,二手车广告的转化率极低,大部分的投入都用于教育用户适应网络购车模式。二手车电商可以迅速解决信息不对称问题,但要让用户改变消费习惯,放弃到店消费转移到网上绝非易事。

 

很多普通消费者对电商模式还处于谨慎观望态势,平台更多被他们当成估价工具,多数车主仍然选择4S店置换或者将车卖给二手车车商。

 

更多的燃料不得不被添加进来,帮助这些选手披荆斩棘。

 

数据显示,从2011年起,优信至少获得了超过13亿美元投资。但这还远远不够,在2014年里仅有5-6亿美元资本涌入二手车电商领域,但这个领域2017年全年融资额超过200亿元,在号称资本寒冬的2018上半年累积融资也已超过百亿。

 

这其中的佼佼者,号称“含着金钥匙创业”的瓜子二手车更是已完成了超33亿美元的融资。


是个好故事但赚钱不容易

 

很多二手车电商从业者都曾对《深网》表示,中国二手车电商有庞大的增长空间。

 

数据显示,美国二手车、新车交易量比例为3.85:1,日本为1.45:1,而中国目前仅有0.4:1。据艾瑞咨询预测,未来五年,中国二手车交易量年均复合增长率约为19%,2022年交易量将达到2960万台,约与新车销量持平。数据显示,2018年10月,全国31个省1068家二手车交易市场共交易二手车118.18万辆,与去年同期相比增长13.94%。

 

中国汽车协会提供的数据则显示,2017年二手车交易量为1240.09万辆,增长19.33%,预计2018年二手车交易量接近1500万辆。所以尽管二手车电商盈利能力还让人怀疑,但普遍行业预测这都是一个高达数万亿元的市场。

 

现实的问题是,很多已被互联网改造的现代消费者,退缩于二手车线下交易的诸多痛点。

 

线下的主流模式基本按照C1(二手车主)—B1(4S店/经销商)—B2(二手车商)—C1(买主)的链条在市场上流通,车主首先将二手车置换给4S店或卖给经销商,经销商通过拍卖等形式再销售给从事零售的二手车车商,再由后者销售给消费者。

 

在这条漫长的产业链条上充斥着信息不对称,和无处不在的猫腻。

 

无论模式如何,二手车电商平台最大的价值是解决了买卖双方信息不对称的问题,通过线上渠道获取买卖双方的信息,将双方以更优惠的价格,更低的沟通成本,和更高的效率连接在一起,最终促成更大的交易量。

 

但把这美好的未来成功落地,二手车电商平台们还有很长的一段路要走,尤其是在盈利层面。

 

去年9月,大搜车CEO姚军红曾透露,中国二手车商零售毛利率较低,销售均价15万元左右的二手车商平均毛利率约为5%。同时,因受新车竞争加剧的影响,近一年内在持续下降。姚军红出示的数据来自于旗下车商SaaS系统大风车,该系统数据显示,全国215家车商在2018年8月时,平均毛利率仅为4.6%,而在1月时平均毛利率则为6.2%。

 

逻辑并不复杂,和其他互联网模式以营销换流量相比,二手车电商平台的营销费用以及服务费打折很难带来直接的流量提升,而是更多瞄准了树立品牌。车辆交易本来就极为低频(在主流销售商品中其低频程度仅次于房产),在一次购车后,很难指望用户在短时间内重复甚至多次消费。有数据显示,根每100辆成交的二手车里,仅有一辆多是通过线上卖出。

 

优信二手车2018年公布的招股书显示,该公司2017年总营收为19.51亿元,同比增长136.7%,净亏损约27.48亿元;其中在销售和营销上的投入达到了22.03亿元,占同期总收入112.9%。

 

其实,这不是一个让人诧异的数字,在二手车交易已经非常成熟的美国市场,二手车电商仍然要为教育市场付出成本,CarMax在成立20余年后,每年广告费用依然高达1.6亿美元。


 

疯狂的二手车电商广告战之下,第一个被拖入泥潭的是人人车。

 

截至2016年9月,人人车获得4轮融资,总金额约为2.6亿美元,而2016年的营销费用就达到5亿元。与瓜子大规模扩张线下店不同,人人车此时把主要精力放在了售后服务,但二手车售后服务是个低频业务,短期内很难有现金流的回报,而人人车的运营压力也因此加重。

 

2017年9月,滴滴为人人车再次注入了2亿美元战略投资。据每经报道,2017年开始,人人车将战略重心放在了严选商城和网约车上。严选商城需要人人车提前向车源垫付80%车款并保证快速完成交易,前提需要铺设线下门店。网约车业务方面,人人车与滴滴达成协议,为滴滴平台上的车主提供包括二手车、新车在内的车源和用车解决方案。

 

但随着滴滴因为顺风车也陷入困局,双方合作便被搁浅。此后,人人车屡次传出裁员和业务收缩的消息,全国范围近百座服务城市直接关停至30多座。

 

对此,人人车以“假消息”、“一切业务运转正常”回应传闻,表示人人车会先集中精力,合法合规地解决因为公司战略升级出现的人员过渡问题。

 

此前,人人车CEO李健在公司内部信中透露,将正式启动“新平台,新零售”的战略升级,2018年下半年,人人车已经在杭州等17个城市进行了新战略的试点。同时,公司员工将成为人人车的“种子合伙人”,享受公司多项扶持政策。


一名人人车分公司员工接受媒体采访时称,人人车改成合伙人模式,意味着员工要自担风险,还得向公司交信息费和押金。“3万块钱给250条信息,还有1万元押金,但不管你是卖服务费还是差价,这些都由个人承担,我们也感觉不到人人车调整能带来哪些好处。”

 

当务之急,人人车急需新的弹药粮草。今年1月,人人车官方向媒体公布:“人人车与成都金牛区签署合作协议,打造政企合作共赢新模式”。同一天,李健在朋友圈中高调宣布,人人车获得了成都金牛区政府40亿元资金支持,同时人人车将在成都设立第二总部。但很快,李健便将该朋友圈删除。

 

针对性外界质疑,人人车官方解释称,李健朋友圈说的是“40亿资金支持”,并不是说由政府直接投资。人人车表示,这笔钱是由政府搭台协助人人车,通过银行、基金、金控平台等市场方式,逐步实现获得40亿元甚至更高的资金支持。

 

2月22日,李健在接受中国企业家杂志采访时透露,人人车下一轮融资也即将开启。但留给人人车的时间已不多了。


未来出路:“支付宝”比“淘宝”重要? 


对于陷入鏖战中的二手车电商而言,线下布局会是这场战争的杀手锏吗?

 

去年9月16日,瓜子二手车第一家严选直卖店落地沈阳并正式开始营业,此门店拥有500余个车位,直接承载了瓜子二手车购车咨询、检测整备、交易过户、金融保险以及维修保养等全生态服务。数据显示,目前瓜子严选直卖店已经在全国开设了超过100家。

 

人人车、大搜车、优信等二手车电商平台也先后布局线下业务。据招股书显示,截至2018年3月31日,优信二手车线下布局门店超670家,覆盖全国270多个城市,并拥有七大区域交易中心。在购车服务方面,优信二手车全国合作经销商超83700家,近100家物流合作伙伴覆盖了超357个城市;此外,在汽车后市场方面,优信也拥有超过297家维修服务合作伙伴。在上市当晚,戴琨表示未来将会把中心仓扩大到20个,把前置仓扩大到1500个,目标是让三四线城市的居民选择扩大到未来的几千甚至几万倍。

 

在一次线下活动中,杨浩涌也表示2019年公司的发展重点仍将放在线下新零售领域。在杨浩涌看来,开线下店的方向是对的,它能够让用户得到更好的体验,也能够继续提高行业效率。

 

但线下布局意味着一笔新的投入,杨浩涌曾表示开线下店瓜子花了10亿,尽管他同时也强调费用为3年均摊,且超过一半的店在他的测算中在半年时间就可以实现盈利。

 

更何况,线下布局也无法解决二手车利润偏低的问题,还要占据大量的流动资金,进入新车业务也面临传统行业等诸多壁垒。而数据显示,贷款分期、保险业务能给经销商带来高达90%的净利润,这让金融布局成为二手车电商的终极武器。

 

2016年夏天,当宜信集团CTO张小沛宣布加盟瓜子二手车时,她对媒体表示,做了这么多年消费金融,意识到它从本质上其实是场景金融,找到一个好的切入场景最为关键,而二手车交易是个好选择。在熟悉电商运作模式的从业者看来,阿里巴巴之所以崛起也是因为金融工具“支付宝”起了重要作用。

 

以优信为例,已经有媒体将其定义“汽车金融平台”。根据优信招股书显示,从2016年第三季度开始,贷款收入就已经成为优信最大的收入来源。在其2018年Q1营收中,对个人用户的贷款收入比重超过了55%,另外优信2C业务的收入占比为70%,其中金融收入占比80%,交易收入占比20%。数据显示,2017年优信单车均价为9.1万元,单车交易收入为811元,占比为0.9%;单车金融收入为3327元,占比为3.7%。两者之和4138元的单车收入占比(单车总收入/单车均价)为4.5%。

 

根据优信二手车去年第三季度财报显示,该公司收入主要分为三大部分,其中To C交易收入为1.39亿元,To C贷款收入为4.74亿元,To B交易收入为1.91亿元,To C贷款收入占到了总营收的50%。

 

不过与更发达的市场相比,中国市场消费者汽车金融的渗透率仍然很低。由技术赋能的新业务能优化二手车供应链整体的透明度、效率和流动性。因此根据艾瑞的数据,中国的二手车消费金融市场的年复合增长率预计将达到45.6%,从2017年的723亿元人民币增长2022年的4730亿元人民币(754亿美元)。

 

此前,杨浩涌也曾对《深网》表示,金融产品的贫瘠让二手车行业受到切肤之痛。根据瓜子二手车当时的相关数据显示,大概有接近五成的用户有贷款需求,但通过率却只有10%,每个月有几百辆车最后没有成交是因为用户无法在银行拿到想要的贷款。杨浩涌坚信这样糟糕的用户体验反而是瓜子二手车的机会所在:“我相信国家政策肯定是会促进消费的,我们这样的公司就必须要在二手车金融这块做起来。”

 

瓜子相继拿到融资租赁牌照和小额贷款牌照后,加快了向二手车金融业务扩张,在杨浩涌看来,“瓜子金融意义相当于蚂蚁金服对淘宝的意义。”


*文章为作者独立观点,不代表“商业人物”立场

*头图购自视觉中国


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